AI capex is emerging as a key 2026 risk for investors who expected smoother rate cuts and calmer prices. Several strategists say the AI buildout could re-ignite inflation through power, chips, labor, and construction costs, and that could end the “easy money” trade that lifted valuations in 2025. Reuters
Why AI capex is becoming a macro concern
The market story entering 2026 has been simple. Growth held up, inflation eased from peaks, and central banks started cutting rates in many economies. Against that backdrop, equities stayed strong and AI-linked names kept leading.
But investors are now debating whether AI capex changes the inflation path. The concern is not only demand. It is the mix of demand hitting hard capacity limits. That can push up prices even when growth is only steady.
One portfolio manager quoted by Reuters argued that “tighter money” could be the pin that pricks an AI bubble. The comment captured a broader fear: if AI capex keeps inflation sticky, central banks may have to stop cutting or even reverse course.
How AI capex can feed prices
AI capex is not just software spending. It is physical investment in data centers, networking, advanced chips, and power infrastructure. That mix pushes on supply chains that already run tight.
Energy is the clearest pinch point. The International Energy Agency projects global data centre electricity use could more than double to about 945 TWh by 2030. It also says AI is a key driver of that rise. Faster power demand can lift utility prices and raise costs across the economy. IEA +2 IEA +2
Chips are another bottleneck. AI capex increases demand for high-end accelerators and related equipment, which can lift input prices and squeeze margins for downstream buyers. Reuters reported that companies have already flagged higher expenses tied to the AI buildout.
Labor and construction matter too. AI capex is concentrated in skilled trades and specialized engineering. If wages rise in those pockets, costs can spread through the broader construction market. That can keep services inflation firmer than expected.
Rates, valuations, and investor positioning
The valuation link is direct. If AI capex keeps inflation above target, policy rates may stay higher for longer. That raises discount rates and pressures long-duration growth stocks. It can also lift funding costs for leveraged projects.
That risk is landing as “bubble talk” grows louder. Ray Dalio said the AI boom looked like an “early bubble phase,” according to Reuters. Even if the AI theme stays intact, markets often punish crowded trades when rates stop falling.
Investors are already discussing how to diversify away from one-way AI leadership. Reuters reported a 2026 positioning theme that favors “value” pockets such as small caps, financials, healthcare, gold, and some emerging-market exposure. Those assets can look better if inflation stays sticky and the rate path becomes choppier.
AI capex also has a credit-market angle. Morgan Stanley has described a rapid ramp in big-tech spending, with very large totals over a short period. When AI capex accelerates, it can pull more financing into power, grid, and data-center projects, and that can reshape spreads and issuance. Morgan Stanley
How big is the AI capex wave?
Forecasts vary, but the numbers are large. Reuters reported estimates that AI-driven capital spending could reach about $4 trillion by 2030. Morgan Stanley has also published a $4 trillion-through-2030 figure for hyperscaler capex in related work. The scale helps explain why investors link AI capex to macro outcomes.
What could blunt the inflation risk
There is a counter-argument. AI capex could raise productivity over time, which can be disinflationary. The problem is timing. Productivity gains often arrive later than the spending surge.
Supply can also respond. More chip capacity, better cooling designs, and faster grid buildouts can reduce bottlenecks. The IEA notes that planning and investment choices will shape how power systems handle rising data-centre demand. That means AI capex is not automatically inflationary everywhere. IEA +1
What to watch in 2026
Investors tracking AI capex and inflation are watching a few signals:
Data-center power pricing and grid-connection queues.
Chip lead times and pricing for advanced accelerators.
Wage pressure in construction and specialized engineering.
Central-bank messaging on the conditions for continued cuts.
If those indicators worsen, inflation expectations may firm and rate-cut hopes may fade. In that world, AI capex remains a growth story, but it becomes a valuation and allocation problem too.