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CPC terminal drone strikes hit tankers, raising export risk

CPC terminal drone strikes hit two tankers waiting to load Kazakhstan crude on January 13, raising operational and insurance risk for a route that carries most Kazakh exports. Traders are watching for schedule slippage, higher war-risk premia, and wider crude differentials.

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#Kazakhstan#CPC terminal#Black Sea#Drone strikes#Crude exports#Insurance#Oil differentials
CPC terminal drone strikes hit tankers, raising export risk

CPC terminal drone strikes hit two oil tankers near Russia’s Black Sea loading hub on January 13, 2026, adding fresh operational risk to Kazakhstan’s main crude export route.

What happened near the CPC terminal

Reuters reported that drones struck two tankers in the Black Sea as the vessels moved toward the CPC terminal at Yuzhnaya Ozereyevka near Novorossiysk.

The ships were identified as the Delta Harmony and the Matilda. Both were due to load Kazakhstan crude at the CPC terminal’s offshore moorings, according to Reuters and Bloomberg.

Delta Harmony was hit at 05:12 GMT, Delta Tankers said, and a short-lived fire was extinguished. The operator said the crew was safe and there were no reports of marine pollution.

Matilda was hit by two drones while waiting in ballast about 30 miles (48 km) off the CPC terminal moorings, an official at Thenamaris said. The company reported no injuries and said the ship suffered minor, repairable damage and sailed away.

It was not immediately clear who carried out the attacks, Reuters reported.

Why the CPC terminal matters for Kazakhstan crude

The CPC terminal is the main outlet for Kazakhstan’s seaborne crude exports.

Reuters has reported that the Caspian Pipeline Consortium system handles around 80% of Kazakhstan’s oil exports and accounts for about 1% of global crude supply.

That concentration is why CPC terminal incidents can move pricing fast. If loadings slip, refineries that rely on CPC Blend often need quick replacement barrels.

Risk premium rises even without a shutdown

The immediate market impact showed up first in insurance.

Reuters reported that war-risk insurance costs for ships sailing to the Black Sea nearly doubled on January 13 after the CPC terminal drone strikes, citing five industry sources.

Higher war-risk premiums can raise delivered costs for crude. They can also reduce the pool of willing tonnage for the CPC terminal.

Even when infrastructure keeps running, tighter shipping conditions can slow scheduling. It can also widen crude differentials as buyers demand compensation for uncertainty.

Kazakhstan output signals stress at the CPC terminal

The strikes arrived as Kazakhstan’s production was already under pressure.

Reuters reported that Kazakhstan’s oil and gas condensate output plunged by 35% between January 1 and January 12 compared with December’s average. A source familiar with the data told Reuters the drop was mainly due to export constraints via the CPC terminal.

Kazakhstan’s energy ministry said CPC was continuing to export oil via one mooring, according to Reuters.

A recent pattern of disruption at the CPC terminal

This was not the first recent security shock tied to the CPC terminal.

Reuters reported that the CPC terminal previously came under attack on November 29, 2025, when a drone hit one of CPC’s three main moorings. The earlier damage forced operations onto a single mooring and cut capacity to roughly half.

Reuters also reported in December that bad weather and repair delays pushed CPC Blend loadings down, with buyers facing cancellations and thinner supply.

That backdrop matters because a system running with less redundancy can be more sensitive to any new incident near the CPC terminal.

What to watch next

Three indicators will show whether CPC terminal risk stays contained.

Loading schedules and cancellations

Watch the CPC terminal loading program and any cargo rollovers. A small delay can cascade if weather windows narrow.

Insurance and freight pricing

If war-risk premiums stay elevated, that can lift delivered costs and pressure CPC terminal scheduling.

Physical crude differentials

CPC Blend pricing can react if buyers seek prompt substitutes. Reuters has noted that North Sea barrels can become a key near-term alternative when CPC terminal supply tightens.

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