Exxon Q4 upstream earnings are set to weaken after oil prices fell late in 2025, according to a regulatory update disclosed on January 7, 2026. ([Reuters][1])
What Exxon told investors
Exxon Q4 upstream earnings could drop by about $0.8 billion to $1.2 billion versus the prior quarter because of lower crude prices. ([Reuters][1])
The company said oil prices declined 9.2% during the three months ended December 31, 2025. ([Reuters][1])
Exxon Q4 upstream earnings may also see a smaller swing from gas prices. Exxon said changes in gas prices could range from a $300 million negative to a $100 million positive impact. ([Reuters][1])
Exxon also flagged about $200 million in restructuring charges that could weigh on overall results. ([Reuters][1])
On the offsetting side, Exxon said refining (its downstream business) could add $300 million to $700 million in the quarter due to stronger margins. ([Reuters][1])
Why Exxon Q4 upstream earnings matter for the sector
Exxon Q4 upstream earnings are widely watched as a bellwether for the integrated oil majors. The reason is simple: Exxon’s upstream segment is large, global, and sensitive to benchmark moves.
This update frames how much of the 2025 price softness likely flowed into reported profits. Exxon pointed investors to the same macro pressure felt across the industry.
Reuters reported Brent crude futures fell about 19% in 2025, while U.S. WTI logged an annual decline of almost 20%. ([Reuters][1])
In that setup, Exxon Q4 upstream earnings become a reference point for peers when they discuss realized prices, trading results, and hedge impacts.
What to watch when results land
Exxon said it will release full fourth-quarter results on January 30, 2026. ([Reuters][1])
Until then, three items will shape how investors interpret Exxon Q4 upstream earnings.
1) Price realization versus benchmarks
Exxon Q4 upstream earnings depend on realized prices, not just Brent and WTI averages. Differentials can move fast, especially across regions and crude grades.
If realized prices lag benchmarks, Exxon Q4 upstream earnings could undershoot even the company’s own sensitivity range.
2) Refining as a partial cushion
Refining can diversify outcomes when upstream is under pressure. Exxon’s guidance implies downstream could meaningfully offset weaker production earnings this quarter. ([Reuters][1])
That matters because Exxon Q4 upstream earnings are not the whole story for integrated majors. Investors often look for “mix resilience,” meaning one segment can buffer another.
3) Restructuring and cost execution
Exxon’s expected $200 million restructuring charge may be modest relative to segment earnings, but it signals active cost and portfolio management. ([Reuters][1])
Management has stressed structural cost savings and operational execution in recent quarters. Those themes will matter if Exxon Q4 upstream earnings fall sharply, since the market will ask what is controllable versus what is cyclical.
Recent baseline: where Exxon is coming from
In the third quarter, Exxon reported $7.5 billion of total profit and $5.7 billion of upstream earnings, per Reuters’ summary of company performance. ([Reuters][1])
That baseline helps explain why a $0.8–$1.2 billion move in Exxon Q4 upstream earnings is material. It is not catastrophic, but it is large enough to shift narrative around momentum and cash generation.
Exxon’s own quarterly communications have also emphasized throughput and project execution in downstream operations. That context supports why refining could act as a stabilizer when Exxon Q4 upstream earnings are under pressure. ([ExxonMobil][2])
Market expectations and the earnings-season signal
Analysts cited by Reuters expected Exxon to report adjusted earnings of $1.66 per share for the fourth quarter at the time of the update. ([Reuters][1])
If Exxon Q4 upstream earnings come in weaker than that consensus, it could pull down near-term expectations for other majors that share similar upstream exposure.
If refining delivers near the top of the indicated range, it could soften the read-through. Either way, Exxon Q4 upstream earnings set the tone for how markets translate late-2025 oil weakness into 2026 profit baselines.