Gaza ceasefire phase two has been announced, but its launch is already being tested by continued violence and unresolved core disputes.
What was announced in Gaza ceasefire phase two
U.S. officials said Gaza ceasefire phase two is now underway, moving from a basic truce toward governance, demilitarization, and reconstruction.
The plan centers on a proposed apolitical governing committee of Palestinian technocrats and an international “Board of Peace” meant to oversee the new administration.
Le Monde reported that the architecture still looks incomplete. It said the Board of Peace has not yet been formed, which leaves the new governance structure without a clear supervisory body.
That gap matters because Gaza ceasefire phase two is meant to settle the hardest issues. It is also meant to make the ceasefire durable.
Netanyahu calls it “declarative” as violence persists
Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the announced start of Gaza ceasefire phase two was mostly symbolic. He called the new governing committee a “declarative move,” according to the Associated Press.
AP reported the comment came as Israeli strikes in central Gaza killed six people, including three women.
Reuters also reported continued strikes. It said two airstrikes in Deir al-Balah killed people including a 16-year-old, and a Hamas source said a local commander was among the dead.
These incidents are why Gaza ceasefire phase two looks fragile on day one. They show the truce is reducing violence, not ending it.
The unresolved issues that define Gaza ceasefire phase two
Gaza ceasefire phase two is supposed to tackle three hard files. None appears settled yet.
Disarmament and security control
Israel insists Hamas must lay down its weapons. Hamas leaders have rejected surrender demands, AP reported.
Le Monde described uncertainty around the international force that is meant to guarantee the ceasefire. It said there is still no clarity on composition or mandate.
Without an agreed security framework, Gaza ceasefire phase two can stall quickly. It can also become a blame game.
Crossings and movement
AP reported key questions include the reopening of Rafah and the timing of any deployment of international forces.
Crossings matter for aid and commerce. They also matter for political control.
If crossings remain constrained, Gaza ceasefire phase two will struggle to deliver visible change for civilians.
Reconstruction and funding
Reconstruction costs are huge. AP cited UN estimates above $50 billion and noted that little money has been pledged so far.
Le Monde said there is “total uncertainty” about reconstruction funding as well as the international force.
It also reported competing visions, including an ambitious, unfunded real-estate style plan discussed by private actors.
This is why Gaza ceasefire phase two is not only about rubble. It is also about who pays, who builds, and who governs.
Why implementation looks fragile right now
Gaza ceasefire phase two depends on credible enforcement and workable governance. The early signals are mixed.
On the ground, Gaza residents told AP they needed “tangible” changes, not new announcements. They pointed to continued bloodshed and shortages of food, fuel, and medical care.
On the diplomatic track, Le Monde said the plan remains subject to U.S. attention and could drift without sustained focus.
On the military track, Reuters reported Israel and Hamas continue to blame each other for violations and remain far apart on key disputes despite the phase announcement.
This creates a familiar pattern. Gaza ceasefire phase two may advance on paper while conflict dynamics continue on the margins.
Second-order market relevance of Gaza ceasefire phase two
Markets rarely price humanitarian tragedy directly. They price uncertainty and spillovers.
Gaza ceasefire phase two matters for three second-order channels.
Shipping and insurance risk premia
A fragile ceasefire can keep risk premia embedded in regional shipping and contractor logistics. Insurers often respond to probabilities, not confirmed closures.
The Red Sea and Eastern Mediterranean security picture remains sensitive to regional escalation. When ceasefires look unstable, shipping and security planning becomes more conservative.
Regional energy flows and oil volatility
Energy traders have been repricing Middle East risk in recent sessions.
Financial Times reported oil fell more than 4% on January 15 as fears of U.S. action in Iran eased, underscoring how quickly geopolitical risk premia can appear and fade.
Gaza ceasefire phase two can influence that premium at the margin. It can also interact with other regional shocks.
Durability of U.S.-brokered security arrangements
Gaza ceasefire phase two is tied to a broader U.S. diplomatic push.
If implementation fails, it can weaken confidence in U.S.-brokered monitoring, enforcement, and reconstruction frameworks. That can raise tail risk of renewed escalation.
Those credibility effects matter for defense planning, aid pipelines, and investment risk in adjacent markets.
The broader backdrop: simultaneous Iran pressure
Gaza ceasefire phase two is unfolding as the United States tightens pressure on Iran.
Reuters reported new U.S. sanctions on Iranian officials and entities linked to the protest crackdown, alongside actions targeting laundering networks tied to oil proceeds.
That parallel pressure track matters because regional actors often link conflicts. A fragile Gaza ceasefire phase two can intersect with Gulf security pricing, sanctions risk, and oil-market sensitivity.
What to watch next
Gaza ceasefire phase two will likely be decided by practical signals, not communiqués.
1) Sustained reduction in strikes
Continued airstrikes and fatalities are the fastest way to erode confidence. AP and Reuters both reported deaths after the phase announcement.
If strike frequency falls meaningfully for weeks, Gaza ceasefire phase two will look more credible.
2) Governance committee authority
Le Monde said the Board of Peace is not yet formed. That leaves uncertainty over who can authorize budgets, manage crossings, and command police.
Markets and donors will watch for clear legal authority and credible staffing.
3) A real reconstruction funding path
Pledges, escrow mechanisms, and procurement frameworks are the difference between planning and rebuilding.
Without a funding track, Gaza ceasefire phase two risks becoming a political label rather than an operational shift.
4) Security mechanism details
If an international force is discussed, investors will watch the mandate, rules of engagement, and contributors.
Le Monde highlighted uncertainty on this front. That uncertainty is a direct fragility marker for Gaza ceasefire phase two.