Oil prices fell sharply in early Asian trading on January 15, 2026, as traders cut a geopolitical premium tied to Iran.
The drop followed remarks from U.S. President Donald Trump that eased fears of near-term military escalation.
What moved oil prices on January 15, 2026
Oil prices slid more than 2% after Trump said killings in Iran’s crackdown on protests were subsiding. Reuters reported he also indicated the United States was not planning a military strike. That tone reduced fears of supply disruptions and pulled risk premiums out of crude.
Benchmark moves were swift. Brent fell to about $64.85 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) dropped to roughly $60.48 in early Asia, according to Reuters. Oil prices later extended declines in some trading windows as the market reassessed the week’s earlier rally.
Fundamentals reasserted themselves: inventories and supply signals
Oil prices also reacted to U.S. stock data that looked softer for near-term balances. Reuters cited a 3.4 million-barrel rise in U.S. crude inventories for the week ending January 9, against expectations for a draw. Rising gasoline inventories added to the bearish tone.
Supply headlines layered on more pressure. Reuters reported signs that Venezuela was moving to resume exports and reverse earlier production cuts made under a U.S. embargo framework. That prospect added barrels to a market already debating whether 2026 will run loose. Oil prices tend to respond fast when “marginal” supply stories line up with weak inventory signals.
Why Iran still matters, even after the selloff
Even with oil prices lower, Iran remains a key risk variable. The country is a meaningful exporter and sits beside the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial shipping route. The Financial Times noted Iran’s production and export relevance and highlighted how quickly traders had priced war-risk fears during the prior run-up.
Reuters also framed early 2026 as a “geopolitical trifecta” for crude, with overlapping stress points spanning Iran, Venezuela, and Black Sea shipping risks. That context helps explain why oil prices can swing hard on political phrasing, then snap back to inventories within hours.
What this means for markets beyond crude
The pullback in oil prices matters because crude feeds into multiple asset channels:
Energy equities: Lower oil prices can compress cash-flow expectations for producers and services.
Inflation pricing: Oil prices influence headline inflation and inflation breakevens, especially in the near term.
FX and EM risk: Oil prices often move oil-sensitive currencies and affect terms of trade for importers and exporters.
The key point is speed. When geopolitics fade even slightly, oil prices can “hand back” a war premium quickly, and macro traders then refocus on data like inventories.
What to watch next
Oil prices now face a two-track driver set. The first is geopolitics: any escalation around Iran, sanctions, or shipping routes can rebuild a premium quickly. The second is fundamentals: weekly U.S. inventory trends, Venezuela flows, and broader demand signals.
Reuters noted supportive demand context in the background, including record Chinese crude imports in December 2025 and OPEC’s view that demand growth continues, with markets near balance in 2026. Those themes can stabilize dips, but they do not prevent sharp headline moves.
Source links
Reuters on oil prices falling more than 2% after Trump remarks and U.S. inventory data (January 15, 2026).
Financial Times on the pullback as fears of U.S. action eased (January 15, 2026).
Reuters on the broader early-2026 geopolitical setup in oil (January 15, 2026).