Saudi-UAE tensions and the Yemen trigger
Saudi-UAE tensions are rising after a Saudi-led coalition airstrike hit Yemen’s southern port city of Mukalla in late December 2025. The attack, meant to target alleged arms storage linked to Houthi operations, instead deepened mistrust between the two Gulf allies. The event highlights growing strategic divergence between Riyadh and Abu Dhabi over Yemen’s future and regional influence. (Reuters )
Airport shutdown escalates diplomatic friction
Days after the strike, Aden International Airport suspended all flights following an administrative clash between Saudi and UAE-backed authorities. The shutdown left hundreds of passengers stranded, including medical evacuees. The Southern Transitional Council (STC)—a UAE-backed separatist faction—accused Saudi Arabia of enforcing an “air blockade” by requiring Aden–UAE flights to route through Jeddah. Riyadh said the inspections were limited and aimed at improving flight safety. (Reuters )
Power contest in southern Yemen
At the heart of the Saudi-UAE tensions lies the STC’s expanding authority. The group controls large parts of southern Yemen with Emirati support. Saudi Arabia, meanwhile, backs the internationally recognized government, leading to competing loyalties and armed clashes near Aden and Hadramout. These rival priorities have undermined years of Gulf cooperation in Yemen’s civil war. (AP News )
On January 2, 2026, Saudi Arabia’s envoy to Yemen accused STC leader Aidarus al-Zubaidi of blocking a Saudi delegation’s landing in Aden. The diplomatic fallout illustrated the depth of the Saudi-UAE tensions, shifting their dispute from quiet coordination to open confrontation. (Reuters )
UAE’s military withdrawal signal
In response to mounting disputes, the UAE announced plans to withdraw its remaining troops from Yemen. Analysts said the decision reflects Abu Dhabi’s shift toward limited engagement rather than full coalition involvement. This move also underscores the limits of Saudi Arabia’s influence over regional allies, especially in managing local Yemeni militias. The Saudi-UAE tensions could further erode coalition credibility and delay efforts toward peace. (Reuters )
Economic and regional consequences
Oil and financial markets react
Oil prices remained steady near $62 per barrel, though traders noted cautious sentiment. Market observers said Saudi-UAE tensions add uncertainty to Gulf energy coordination, including OPEC+ policy discussions. Gulf stock markets dipped slightly in early January 2026 as investors reassessed regional risk exposure. (Reuters )
Maritime and regional security
The crisis could weaken coordination in Red Sea and Gulf of Aden maritime patrols, key to maintaining secure global shipping lanes. As Saudi-UAE tensions rise, joint efforts to deter piracy and respond to Houthi attacks risk fragmentation. Analysts warn that reduced collaboration may embolden Iran-backed groups and destabilize shipping corridors crucial for global trade.
Outlook
Diplomatic sources suggest that mediation by the United States and Egypt is underway to ease Saudi-UAE tensions. However, trust remains low. If both sides fail to align on Yemen’s future, regional divisions could widen through 2026. Restoring coordination will require transparent communication and mutual concessions. For Gulf stability, managing these tensions is now as vital as countering external threats.
Saudi-UAE tensions continue to reshape Middle East power balances, testing alliances, markets, and security frameworks. The coming months will determine whether regional unity can recover—or whether the Gulf enters a new phase of rivalry.