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US-Iran strike risk rises, but talks still in play
US-Iran strike risk is higher than normal as military incidents mount and talks wobble on venue and scope. Public reporting does not support “imminent” action, but leaked strike options and force posture shifts are lifting risk premia for shipping, energy, and EM FX.
Rafah crossing volatility halts Gaza patient evacuations
Rafah crossing access remains unstable after renewed Gaza strikes and disrupted patient evacuations. Reuters reports limited movement, delays, and allegations of harsh treatment at checkpoints, keeping humanitarian operations fragile and raising wider regional risk.
Milano Cortina 2026 security plan hardens amid ICE row
Milano Cortina 2026 security is tightening as Italy unveils “red zones,” drone and robotics surveillance, and a 24/7 cyber command. Officials say U.S. ICE staff supporting the U.S. delegation “won’t be on the streets,” but protests are planned.
Syria ceasefire extension wins US-Europe backing
Syria ceasefire extension: the U.S., UK, France and Germany welcomed a 15-day truce renewal and urged strict adherence, as Damascus plans new SDF integration talks under U.S. backing in a fragile northeast calm.
Gaza forced evacuation order tests Oct 2025 ceasefire
A Gaza forced evacuation order in Bani Suhaila near Khan Younis is the first such move since the Oct 2025 ceasefire, residents say. Leaflets warned “You must evacuate immediately,” as UN agencies and Hamas cite pressure around Israel’s security boundary.
UNRWA compound demolition shakes East Jerusalem
UNRWA compound demolition in East Jerusalem drew UN condemnation after Israeli forces bulldozed vacated buildings on Jan 20. UN chief António Guterres urged Israel to halt work and restore the site, as UNRWA warned of defiance of international law.
Ukraine energy infrastructure hit as talks continue
Ukraine energy infrastructure took another heavy hit after Russia launched a large overnight missile and drone wave, cutting heat and power in Kyiv during extreme cold. Kyiv says the strikes aim to “create a humanitarian disaster” as U.S.-led talks continue.
Ukraine energy infrastructure hit as talks continue
Ukraine energy infrastructure took another heavy hit after Russia launched a large overnight missile and drone wave, cutting heat and power in Kyiv during extreme cold. Kyiv says the strikes aim to “create a humanitarian disaster” as U.S.-led talks continue.
Spain high-speed train crash: toll 39, track fault probe
Spain high-speed train crash investigators are probing a possible faulty rail joint after a derailment and collision near Adamuz killed at least 39. With 12 in intensive care, Spain declared mourning as operators Iryo and Renfe face scrutiny over safety and maintenance.
Iran protests crackdown: Trump thanks Tehran, keeps threat
Iran protests crackdown tensions eased slightly after Trump thanked Tehran for halting alleged executions of 800+ prisoners. Reuters says he was told killings were easing, but “all options” rhetoric and Iran’s denials keep markets on edge.
U.S. visit seeks calm after Trump Greenland threats
Trump Greenland threats over acquiring Greenland pushed 11 U.S. lawmakers to Copenhagen to reassure Denmark and Greenland on self-determination, NATO unity, and trade risks.
Gaza ceasefire phase two: diplomacy starts, strikes continue
Gaza ceasefire phase two was announced by the U.S., but Israeli strikes continued and Netanyahu called the start “declarative.” With disarmament, crossings, and reconstruction unresolved, the truce looks fragile and regional risk premia may persist.
Iran Cyber Siege Banking and Fuel Systems Freeze
A massive cyberattack has paralyzed Iran’s banking and fuel infrastructure, coinciding with IAEA warnings that nuclear breakout time has shrunk to theoretical days.
Greenland US tension spikes as PM says ‘we choose Denmark’
Greenland US tension rose after PM Jens-Frederik Nielsen said “we choose Denmark” ahead of Washington talks with VP JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio. The dispute tests NATO cohesion as Arctic security and minerals competition intensify.
CPC terminal drone strikes hit tankers, raising export risk
CPC terminal drone strikes hit two tankers waiting to load Kazakhstan crude on January 13, raising operational and insurance risk for a route that carries most Kazakh exports. Traders are watching for schedule slippage, higher war-risk premia, and wider crude differentials.
UNICEF Gaza ceasefire: 100+ children killed since Oct
UNICEF Gaza ceasefire concerns are rising after UNICEF said 100+ children have been killed in Gaza since the early-October 2025 ceasefire. Winter storms, shelter collapses, and hypothermia are worsening displacement pressures as violence persists at lower intensity.
Iran unrest fuels Hormuz tail risk as deaths pass 500
Iran unrest deaths topped 500, according to HRANA, as Tehran tightens its crackdown and strike calls lift oil tail-risk fears. With Hormuz vital to global flows, markets are watching for any tangible supply disruption.
UN Iran protests: Guterres urges restraint, restore net
UN Iran protests drew fresh scrutiny on Jan. 12, 2026 as Guterres urged “maximum restraint” and restored communications, while Europe condemned killings and Iran widened its diplomatic counter-offensive amid a blackout.
Starlink in Iran: Trump asks Musk to restore access
Starlink in Iran moved back into the spotlight on Jan. 12, 2026 after Trump said he would talk to Elon Musk about restoring internet access during a four-day blackout amid deadly protests and rising U.S.–Iran threats.
Iran internet blackout deepens U.S.-Iran escalation
Iran internet blackout measures have cut Iran off from the outside world as protests spread, limiting verification while Trump threatens retaliation and Tehran escalates blame through the UN.