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Fed independence flagged as US rating risk by Fitch
Fed independence is becoming a market and ratings issue after Fitch warned that a meaningful erosion would be “credit negative” for the U.S., as a DOJ probe of Jerome Powell over Fed HQ renovation overruns turns into a political flashpoint.
The 2026 IPO surge: bankers position for a deal rebound
The 2026 IPO surge is back in view as Wall Street bankers cite stronger pipelines after 2025 fees topped $100B. OpenAI, SpaceX and Cerebras are among names floated as markets steady and private equity hunts exits.
China Economy Fractures: CPI Surges, Deflation Persists
December data reveals a widening split in China's economy: consumer prices hit a three-year high while producer prices remain in deflation, signaling severe industrial overcapacity.
Oil prices steady as Iran risk meets Venezuela return
Oil prices edged up on Jan 12 as Iran unrest and strike calls lifted supply fears, while Venezuela’s export restart capped gains. Brent near $63, WTI near $59 as traders awaited tangible disruption.
Powell DOJ probe sends gold past $4,600
Powell DOJ probe headlines jolted markets after reports of a criminal investigation tied to Fed renovations. Gold hit about $4,600/oz, the dollar slipped, and stock futures fell as investors priced fresh risks to Fed independence.
Anglo-Teck merger nears EU antitrust green light
The Anglo-Teck merger is set for a likely EU antitrust clearance via a simplified review, with a Feb 10, 2026 decision date and a separate foreign-subsidies check due Feb 3.
U.S. payrolls stall at 50k as S&P 500 hits record
U.S. payrolls rose just 50,000 in Dec 2025 and unemployment held at 4.4%, while the S&P 500 hit an intraday record as traders kept pricing 2026 Fed easing despite a likely January pause.
PBoC rate cuts signaled for 2026, with RRR easing
PBoC rate cuts are on the table for 2026, alongside reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts to keep liquidity ample and support growth. The signal follows months of steady benchmark lending rates and renewed focus on domestic demand.
Eurozone inflation hits ECB target in Dec 2025
Eurozone inflation eased to 2.0% in December 2025, matching the ECB’s target as energy prices fell. Services inflation stayed elevated, shaping expectations for a cautious rate path in 2026.
Marubeni Jacobson acquisition: Gola owner bought
Marubeni Jacobson acquisition puts UK footwear group Jacobson (Gola, Lotus, Ravel, Frank Wright) into Marubeni’s US consumer platform. Terms were not disclosed, but the move targets retro sneaker demand and global distribution scale.
Vistra Cogentrix acquisition: $4.7B bet on gas power
The Vistra Cogentrix acquisition adds 10 gas plants (~5.5GW) across key U.S. power markets for a deal valued around $4.7B. It shows utilities leaning into dispatchable capacity as demand jumps.
Exxon Q4 upstream earnings set to drop on oil slide
Exxon Q4 upstream earnings are poised to take an $0.8B–$1.2B hit from weaker crude prices, even as refining could add $0.3B–$0.7B. The update sets expectations for energy earnings season.
U.S. jobs report set to jolt 2026 markets
The U.S. jobs report on Jan. 9 could break the early-2026 calm as investors also price Venezuela-driven oil risk, shifting Fed-cut bets and near-term volatility.
ISM manufacturing PMI slips to 47.9 in Dec
ISM manufacturing PMI fell to 47.9 in December 2025, marking 10 straight months of contraction as tariffs, weak orders, and high input costs weighed on factories.
Venezuela bonds surge after Maduro capture shocks markets
Venezuela bonds jumped after the Maduro capture, rippling through oil, U.S. stocks, and sanctions policy. Traders weighed crude-flow risk, while investors priced a possible debt reset and tighter asset freezes.
AI capex risks reviving inflation, investors warn
AI capex is emerging as a 2026 market risk as investors warn the data-center and chip buildout could keep inflation sticky, limit rate cuts, and force a rotation away from crowded AI trades.
BOJ rate hikes: Ueda signals more as yen weakens
BOJ rate hikes remain on the table after Governor Kazuo Ueda said the central bank will keep lifting rates if growth and inflation meet forecasts. The yen traded near 157 per dollar and 10-year JGB yields briefly hit about 2.125%, sharpening focus on the Jan 22–23 outlook report.
DigitalBridge acquisition: SoftBank’s $4B AI data push
DigitalBridge acquisition: SoftBank agreed to pay $16 a share in a $4B all-cash deal to scale “next-gen AI infrastructure,” signaling the capex shift toward power, data centers, and connectivity.
Saks Global readies Chapter 11 after $100M+ missed pay
Saks Global, parent of Saks Fifth Avenue and Neiman Marcus, is preparing a Chapter 11 filing after missing an interest payment exceeding $100 million tied to acquisition financing. The crisis highlights leverage stress in luxury retail and may tighten vendor and landlord terms.
Disney+ Hulu integration set for 2026 super-app
Disney+ Hulu integration is planned for 2026, folding Hulu into Disney+ to lift engagement, reduce churn, and improve ad yield. Disney is already shifting Hulu branding globally and tightening the tech stack after gaining full ownership, setting up a higher-stakes year for streaming execution.